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he estimated burden of HIV / AIDS in Uganda, 2005 - 2010

The objectives were to estimate the disease burden of HIV in Uganda and the effect of HIV / AIDS control programs to reduce the problem. The mathematical modeling and projection surveillance and using census data for the design was used. Using surveillance antenatal clinic (1986-2002) and the recent Population Survey (2004-2005), data, we have modeled the adult national HIV prevalence over time (1981-2004), and kept Prevalence constant at 6.4% for the years 2004-2010. Using Spectrum software and census data, we felt the burden of HIV disease and the incidence of certain related to HIV prevention and treatment programmes. In 2005, we estimated that there were 135300 new HIV infections (incidence of HIV among adults 0.96%), frequently asymptomatic infections 691900, 88100 AIDS cases and 76400 deaths due to AIDS. An estimated 647000 (80%) of adults infected with HIV are unaware of their infection, a third of all adult deaths are related to HIV. As a result of population growth, by 2008 the same number of people will be infected with HIV (1.1 million) than during the peak of the epidemic in 1994. Although antiretroviral therapy (ART), the coverage is expected to increase from 67000 (2005) to 160000 (2010), the number of people in need of antiretroviral therapy, but not only will decrease slightly, from 127600 (2005) to 111100 (2010 ). The use of single-dose nevirapine in 2005 probably averted only 4% of the approximately 20400 vertical infections. HIV / AIDS continues to be a major cause of illness and death among adults in Uganda. ART universal access is probably unachievable. With the absolute burden of HIV infection among the approaching historic peak in the early 1990's, several effective prevention programmes are of paramount importance.

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